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"Everything in lutherie is intelligent guesses"

This is a quote of Ervin Somogyi from his article in American Lutherie #36 winter 1993

Do you agree with this statement or disagree with this statement and why?

For the full context you can read this article here on Ervin's website:http://www.esomogyi.com/principles.html

Well to me the statement is self evident.

We do actions and make all decisions based of the experience. Experience we have learned through our own trial and error or experience we have leaned from the previous experiences of other. This is the educated part of the phrase

All decisions we make are based on criteria that is subject to change. No two pieces of wood, even rendered from the same piece of timber have the exact same characteristics and attributes. Even in thing like measuring and marking we have a degree of tolerance we knowingly and unknowingly deal with every time we make a mark. This is the guessing part of the phrase.

AH! So it's the INTELLEGENCE I've been missing!

And yes, I do agree with that statement with one point of compunction...my first 3 guitars were Martin clones right down to the "T" in regards to thicknesses, bracing, etc...so no guesswork (intellegent or otherwise) there...after I had a solid idea of what I was aiming for the guessing (hopefully intellegent) began with guitar 4 or so...by the by, nice guitar coming along there Hesh!

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http://www.presnallguitars.com

Science is intelligent guesses, too, but scientists are much more methodical about accounting for doubt. I think that, over time, with better measuring and sharing, we'll all be making more intelligent guesses

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Bob Garrish
Former Canonized Purveyor of Fine CNC Luthier Services

Yeah, though there are times when I feel "intelligent" may be used a bit liberally.

I guess it doesn't come as a very deep or important sentiment to me though, since the quote could really be a fill-in-the-blank statement.

"Everything in _________ is intelligent guesses"

Baking
Nuclear Physics
Psychiatry
Fishing

Kind of seems to minimize it's pertinence to our particular craft when you think of it this way.

Man, why am I getting this craving for a caramel mocha latte all of a sudden?

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Eschew obfuscation, espouse elucidation.

That proves I've been doing half of it right!

I would agree, if we can call the data that we use to inform our decisions "intelligence." When I was in engineering, the acronym SWAG came up often, for "scientific wild-a%s guess." Perhaps the same thing.

Pat

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formerly known around here as burbank
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http://www.patfosterguitars.com

Oh Contrar! you see those that make those brace and thicknessed those parts for you made those intelligent guesses. The fact of some one else making those parts for you did not remove varibility from those parts.

No, that's just an exercise in futility!

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My Facebook Guitar Page

"There's really no wrong way, as long as the results are what's desired." Charles Fox

"We have to constantly remind ourselves what we're doing....No Luthier is putting a man on the moon!" Harry Fleishman

"Generosity is always different in the eye of the person who didn't receive anything, but who wanted some." Waddy Thomson

I strongly disagree.
In my shop, it is just guesses.
If you want intelligence, go talk to Ervin.

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"An adventure is only an inconvenience rightly considered. An inconvenience is an adventure wrongly considered." G. K. Chesterton.

There is an article in the recent American Lutherie about using Google "math mode" to do something about intonation at every fret.

Take a look at that article and see if someone is taking the "intelligent" part of the guessing to the eye-glazing extreme.

Me not a math-guy.

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Me being a new luthier I'd have to agree with Steve. For me it's non-intelligent guesswork I'm afraid.

Albert Einstein said to a close friend just prior submitting his theory of relativity, “All scientific theory is just a series of intelligent guesses followed later by acclimation of brilliant insight or capitulation to lack there of. It is certain that my paper to will fall in one of these categories”

Hi Michael,

I didn't word that exactly right...my first 3 weren't kits, but were made from Martin plans...I meant to say that no guessing was done on MY part...I just hacked out the pieces according to the plan and put the guitars together the way the plan indicated...you are right, of course, that someone along the path before me made the guesses that made the plan I followed! Now, I make my own guesses for better or worse!

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http://www.presnallguitars.com

"...I meant to say that no guessing was done on MY part..."

Sure; you guessed that their guesses would be right! There's no escape!

I may just be a grumpy old man, but it seems to me to be one of those trite statements people make when they want to appear clever and insightful.

Colin

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I don't believe in anything, I simply make use of a set of reasonable working hypotheses.

Everything in LIFE is intelligent guesses... The only difference is the amount of given information that you have available to make that guess from.

Amen

Mike

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Mike Collins

I would have to agree, as any level of intelligence cannot give you a guarantee that you are making a knowledgeable decision or that that decision is correct.

The statement “"Everything in lutherie is intelligent guesses" leaves the answer to serendipity. Which is what I believe Ervin was saying in his article.

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Michael Lloyd

“I was born to ignorance, yes, and lesser poverties ...
I was born to privilege that I did not see ... I didn’t know it, but my way was paved” – John Gorka

Actually, in my experience, Ervin IS quite clever and insightful but I never saw him go out of his way to appear that way.

I don't know about him but if I were to say something to that effect, it would be out humility. If anyone has been at this very long and not found themselves to be wrong about something they thought was a "fact" then I suspect they need to look harder.

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http://www.chassonguitars.com

Taken literally, Ervin's statement is pretty obviously false.

My question is, Hesh, what is the point of this assignment?

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Howard Klepper
http://www.klepperguitars.com

When all else fails, clean the shop.

Who needs a point?

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Steve Smith
"Music is what feelings sound like"

Thank You - my feelings exactly!

If you need a point the point is what ever you wish to take away from this thread including the possibility that some will find it pointless. It is by no means an "assignment" instead it's just something that I thought was very interesting and I still think this quotation is very interesting.

What's even more interesting to me is to see some of the replies here and the relative importance, or not, that various members placed on this question.

There is no correct answer IMHO which in a way brings us full circle does it not?

My own personal take on Ervin's statement is that the operative word here is "intelligent" and intelligent could be substituted for "experienced" since that fits the context of this paper and it's author. Ervin is saying, again IMHO, a number of things.

First that intelligence when it comes to Lutherie comes from experience and second that no matter how much experience one has they will still, at times, be guessing. Lastly since guessing comes into play here the possibility will always exist that the guesser, experienced or not, may at times be correct with their guesses and may at times be flat out wrong.

Kind of humbling eh?

Thanks a lot there, Oblio. Now I'm going to have Harry Nilsson songs going through my head all day.

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Eschew obfuscation, espouse elucidation.

Well I would not wish that on you David my friend......

My apologies.......

I do have to agree with Hesh. Successful building is a matter of making intelligent choices which does translate to choices made from experience. Choices made from experience will help to eliminate prior mistakes and cause a better flow both technically and creatively. Which is exactly what I'm doing here. When one with more experience is willing to share their intelligence it drastically cuts down the time one has to spend hacking through it on their own. We will never eliminate the guessing part but we can cut it down to managable levels. It certainly makes the process much more fun.
By the way, philosophy, in my humble opinion is never useless. It at least gets some lazy brain cells firing off. That's something I can always use!