Official Luthiers Forum!

I was just wondeing if any of our friends in Luthier Land have been affected by the Hurricane ? Is everyone ok ?

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

Hope you had insurance !!

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

been on generator power since 4:10 this morning . Other than that we are fine

_________________
John Hall
blues creek guitars
Authorized CF Martin Repair
Co President of ASIA
You Don't know what you don't know until you know it

According to internet there are several million out of power right now , hope it gets fixed quickly . Time to break out the hand saws

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

Less wind here than I expected (we are still in the tropical storm wind zone, and it seems to be blowing now as much as it did all night), lots and lots of rain during the approach of the storm and then none when it was next to us or past us.

I'll probably be professionally involved in going down to see how badly the southern end of the state got squished later in the week. Surge levels don't look like they were too bad - 4 to 5 feet but the peak coincided with astronomical low tide, and just ended up being a hair higher than a normal high tide. Flood stage on several of the rivers tomorrow may end up causing more flooding damage than the storm surge.

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Jim Kirby
kirby@udel.edu

I did several weeks of relief work after katrina hit the south , After seeing that I never take for granted what wind and water can do , THAT was some scary stuff .

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

We are waiting the tail of the hurricane today, here in Montreal. Probably won't be so strong. They said to consider about 60mph wing and huge amount of rain.

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Francis Richer, Montréal
Les Guitares F&M Guitars

All is well in NYC. I never saw winds much over 30 mph where I am. If anyone needs some bottled water I've got enough in my stash to last me a couple of years.

Delaware residential damage was probably due more to tornadoes spawned by the storm, of which there were a bunch. I don't think the owners of the several dozen houses that got taken out (as of dinnertime yesterday, well before storm arrival) thought the storm was over-hyped.

Timing was good for the local coastal folks since the surge crest passed at spring low tide. a 12 hour difference in arrival time would have flooded a good bit of territory. (Delaware is low - we would lose something like 20% of the state to a 1 meter sea level rise in the absence of any tide marsh platform elevation adjustement to keep up)

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Jim Kirby
kirby@udel.edu

I hadnt even considered that part of it , thanks for chiming in . Hopefully the loss of life is at a minimum . STUFF can be replaced .

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

We are getting rain and some wind here in NH but the storm is tracking more to the west now. Looking at the radar we should get more rain but as usual not as bad as they made it out to be. I have a house 21 miles outside of Key West also and we hear the same stuff down there all the time...

Gary

Sorry, your point remains utterly opaque to me.

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Jim Kirby
kirby@udel.edu

Kinda got a lil off topic here , the MAIN and ONLY point we want conveyed is . Is everyone ok ? Lets Forgo all the retoric and make sure our friends here have what they need and are in good shape after the storm !

Thanks

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

power is still out and there are about 20,000 home without power in my county alone . Not sure of the reason but at least I have a generator . There are people a lot worse off . The storm here was not all that bad . A bit of rain and winds of about 30 MPH. We live in the mountains and were expecting more trouble than we did have .
No major flooding and little wind damage in the area but I think areas to the east of us got it worse then we . Cats and kittens are safe .

_________________
John Hall
blues creek guitars
Authorized CF Martin Repair
Co President of ASIA
You Don't know what you don't know until you know it

Well then, just make sure to do your part to prevent global warming and keep making guitars - it is after all a form of carbon sequestration (provided you don't burn it later).

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The member formerly known as erikbojerik....

To provide a more balanced response - Emergency management decisions about how to respond to a storm have to be made considerably far in advance of forecasters' ability to accurately predict storm properties. The modeling of hurricane path and speed has improved markedly over the past two decades and is now reasonably skillful on a 5-10 day time frame and very skillful on a 2-3 day time frame, which is the frame where evacuation decisions have to be made. In contrast, the modeling skill at predicting storm intensity has not improved at all in this 20 year time frame, because the thermodynamic problems associated with moisture exchange in the cloud and between the ocean and atmosphere are partially not known and partially not treated thoroughly enough in the models. This was born out pretty clearly if you were following storm trackers for Irene (I liked the one posted by the NY Times in particular), where the predicted transition point from Category 1 to tropical storm bounced back and forth from offshore of the mouth of the Chesapeake to central New England on a two hour time frame, up to the point where the storm was traversing the very region in question.

So, EMA people are faced with making decisions about storm response on a time frame that is way out in advance of the forecasters' time frame for giving them an accurate intensity. Is the storm going to be a 1, a 2, a 3 when it hits here? If you don't know and you are presented with this range of possibilities at a point in time when you have to decide who to move out, which choice do you make? A 3, of course. And this is the threat level that you portray to the media, and it in turn portrays to the public.

Now, when the decision to act is made, what is action based on? Each state has an inundation map that is labeled with areas corresponding to categories 1-5. These maps are a result of modeling efforts carried out by FEMA and the Corps of Engineers, and which are presently being redone for the entire east coast (maps used for this weekend's event are the old ones - the new ones are just reaching the point of being transferred to print and online media.) These maps are based on worst case scenarios that combine highest astronomical tides at a given point with the worst case surge resulting from an ensemble of simulated events moving through a given area (often thousands of events in a modern simulation environment - ever seen a picture of the main supercomputer room at UT Austin? The group that simulates these events is the largest user of that system.) Local EMA people take the map together with the choice of storm category, and that's where they draw the evacuation line. Local EMA people at the county level are well versed in where their own lines are, and are usually not equipped with the background that would be needed to further make nuanced decisions on whether the storm is going to do something like arrive at low tide, as it did here this weekend. They don't have the technical skill to make those decisions, and they don't have accurate information about those arrival times at the point in time where decisions are made.

So, in the final analysis, a storm can weaken a lot in a day or two prior to the landfall you are looking at, but evacuation plans were already in place before that happened or was certified as a valid observation of the storm.

So, I think its OK for the feds and state guys to be conservative (i.e. tending towards worst case) in their estimates. A number of people in Japan would have been happier if the hazard mapping people there had relented 20 years ago and based their tsunami scenarios on greatest geological potential of the fault activity rather than sticking strictly to historical record, which was the basis for their planning. Sure society as a whole is faced with more pressing issues, but they don't mean much when a wall of water is bearing down on you. As scientists, we can at least try to protect people from that.

_________________
Jim Kirby
kirby@udel.edu

To provide a more balanced response - Emergency management decisions about how to respond to a storm have to be made considerably far in advance of forecasters' ability to accurately predict storm properties. The modeling of hurricane path and speed has improved markedly over the past two decades and is now reasonably skillful on a 5-10 day time frame and very skillful on a 2-3 day time frame, which is the frame where evacuation decisions have to be made. In contrast, the modeling skill at predicting storm intensity has not improved at all in this 20 year time frame, because the thermodynamic problems associated with moisture exchange in the cloud and between the ocean and atmosphere are partially not known and partially not treated thoroughly enough in the models. This was born out pretty clearly if you were following storm trackers for Irene (I liked the one posted by the NY Times in particular), where the predicted transition point from Category 1 to tropical storm bounced back and forth from offshore of the mouth of the Chesapeake to central New England on a two hour time frame, up to the point where the storm was traversing the very region in question.

So, EMA people are faced with making decisions about storm response on a time frame that is way out in advance of the forecasters' time frame for giving them an accurate intensity. Is the storm going to be a 1, a 2, a 3 when it hits here? If you don't know and you are presented with this range of possibilities at a point in time when you have to decide who to move out, which choice do you make? A 3, of course. And this is the threat level that you portray to the media, and it in turn portrays to the public.

Now, when the decision to act is made, what is action based on? Each state has an inundation map that is labeled with areas corresponding to categories 1-5. These maps are a result of modeling efforts carried out by FEMA and the Corps of Engineers, and which are presently being redone for the entire east coast (maps used for this weekend's event are the old ones - the new ones are just reaching the point of being transferred to print and online media.) These maps are based on worst case scenarios that combine highest astronomical tides at a given point with the worst case surge resulting from an ensemble of simulated events moving through a given area (often thousands of events in a modern simulation environment - ever seen a picture of the main supercomputer room at UT Austin? The group that simulates these events is the largest user of that system.) Local EMA people take the map together with the choice of storm category, and that's where they draw the evacuation line. Local EMA people at the county level are well versed in where their own lines are, and are usually not equipped with the background that would be needed to further make nuanced decisions on whether the storm is going to do something like arrive at low tide, as it did here this weekend. They don't have the technical skill to make those decisions, and they don't have accurate information about those arrival times at the point in time where decisions are made.

So, in the final analysis, a storm can weaken a lot in a day or two prior to the landfall you are looking at, but evacuation plans were already in place before that happened.

So, I think its OK for the feds and state guys to be conservative (i.e. tending towards worst case) in their estimates. A number of people in Japan would have been happier if the hazard mapping people there had relented 20 years ago and based their tsunami scenarios on greatest geological potential of the fault activity rather than sticking strictly to historical record, which was the basis for their planning. Sure society as a whole is faced with more pressing issues, but they don't mean much when a wall of water is bearing down on you. As scientists, we can at least try to protect people from that.

_________________
Jim Kirby
kirby@udel.edu

I really dont give a flying daddly da.... about all the retoric and all the gov studies and all the bs surrounding it , cant we just be concerned that people are ok ?

Ya know what .... never mind !

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

?? rhetoric ??

_________________
Jim Kirby
kirby@udel.edu

Yes , all I want to know and opened this thread about was are real flesh an blood people OK thats it . But obviously there a people out there head and shoulders smarter than me ! So when compaired to "are real flesh and blood people OK" yes its all rhetoric ! Why cant the thread be the simple thread its ment to be ARE PEOPLE OK ?

But hey who am I so ....... have at it.

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

Everyone here is OK, as far as I know (all fatalities that I know of were on Outer Banks). When you are OK, its easy to go off on the details.

_________________
Jim Kirby
kirby@udel.edu

40 sq ft of rolled roof "rolled back". And forth. and back. That thumping was above our bedroom, so it was hard to sleep with all the noise. And as the third transformer blew up, power went out about 5:15 AM. We're on the hospital power grid and so we got our power back (with the sunny skies) about 4:15 PM. All good here

Was the thumping at least in time ? Glad ur all ok ! I have seen alot of pic from out there , some places are looking pretty bad .

_________________
The Shallower the depth of the stream , The Louder the Babble !
The Taking Of Offense Is the Life Course Of The Stupid One !
Wanna Leave a Better Planet for our Kids? How about Working on BETTER KIDS for our Planet !
Forgiveness is the ability to accept an apology that you will probably NEVER GET
The truth will set you free , But FIRST, it will probably Piss you Off !
Creativity is allowing yourself to make Mistakes, Art is knowing which ones to Keep !
The Saddest thing anyone can do , is push a Loyal Person to the point that they Dont Care Anymore
Never met a STRONG person who had an EASY past !
http://wiksnwudwerks.blogspot.com/
http://www.facebook.com/groups/GatewayA ... rAssembly/

Terry, where are you located? We just didn't seem to get much wind in Newark, even though I'm guessing we were closer to the outer envelope of the hurricane wind speed zone than you are. We did have tornadoes, though.

_________________
Jim Kirby
kirby@udel.edu

I'm about 15 miles from Manhattan in NYC. We had little damage from winds, but plenty of rain. The ground was saturated to begin with, so this morning, we had to start dealing with a flooded basement. Everybody in our small subdivision has water in their basement. We ran the wet/dry vac util about 7:00 tonight when the winds came back up and broke a line somewhere, putting us in the dark until about 9:30. There will still be some clean up in the basement tomorrow, and some schools and businesses will no doubt be closed for a few days because of water damage and lack of power.

My guitar workshop is in the basement and had a couple of inches of standing water in it this morning at 8:00. I had thought ahead and nothing was on the floor, so other than moving a couple of new guitars just back from finish upstairs for a couple of days, and some wet workbench legs, all is well.

Glad it wasn't worse.

Chris.